Want to spend a frustrating ten minutes?
Go try to find the total votes cast on Super Tuesday.
Percentages, sure easy, total votes difficult.
(Caveat, some vote totals are still trickling in, but bear with me. For what interests me these numbers are close enough. These are totals from early Wednesday afternoon EST.)
Anyway, here the numbers are:
Clinton 50.2% 7,347,971
Obama 49.8% 7,294,851
McCain 43.1% 3,611,459
Romney 35.4% 2,961,834
Huckabee 21.5% 1,796,729
so the Democratic vote here 14,622,822 (63.6%)
and the Republican 8,370,022 (36.4%)
What is in my head, why I went and looked up these numbers, was that I was reading through the post-election commentary and there it was again.
The talking head (or should that be pointy-head?) pundits telling me that Hillary shouldn't be the Democratic candidate, because "polls" show that McCain will beat Hillary in a general election.
How do they make the numbers work?
I see Hillary 7,347,971 and McCain 3,611,459.
These are real, warm bodies in 22 states who went and voted.
Is there any reason to believe that in November Romney, and Huckabee supporters would be tremendously more likely to turn out for McCain than Obama supporters would be willing to vote for Hillary?
Because taking these numbers, even if every Obama voter just stayed home, it would take every Republican vote for all three candidates to beat Hillary.
Are poll-takers just plain loopy?
(The last California polls called it for Obama by 17%, after all….)
Anyway, I'm off to try to find total primary votes cast so far, so I'll be in Google limbo for a while.